Jason Lewis: How the League Looks at the Thanksgiving Mark

good write up, i read it all.

I just wanted to add:

Leafs have had a very tough schedule to start the season, back to back games and playing vs really tough opponents. Schedule is much easier as the season goes on.

Im thrilled to see them in a playoff spot to be honest.

thanks Jason!

Hey Jason, not sure why you're not using Corsi-Close(because the score does dictate corsi, there's plenty of data to back this up).

The actual Corsi standings are:

1. MIN
2. CHI
3. PIT
4. NYI
5. SJ
6. ANA
7. BOS
8. NSH
9. TB
10. VAN
11. DET
12. WPG
13. WSH
14. NJ
15. EDM
16. STL
17. NYR
18. DAL
19. CAR
20. LA
21. FLA
22. MTL
23. TOR
24. OTT
25. PHI
26. ARI
27. CGY
28. CBJ
29. COL
30. BUF


I don't believe Corsi or Fenwick(Close score situations only) is everything, but it's definitely one of the many factors to consider when evaluating a team.

Hey Jason, not sure why you're not using Corsi-Close(because the score does dictate corsi, there's plenty of data to back this up).

The actual Corsi standings are:

1. MIN
2. CHI
3. PIT
4. NYI
5. SJ
6. ANA
7. BOS
8. NSH
9. TB
10. VAN
11. DET
12. WPG
13. WSH
14. NJ
15. EDM
16. STL
17. NYR
18. DAL
19. CAR
20. LA
21. FLA
22. MTL
23. TOR
24. OTT
25. PHI
26. ARI
27. CGY
28. CBJ
29. COL
30. BUF


I don't believe Corsi or Fenwick(Close score situations only) is everything, but it's definitely one of the many factors to consider when evaluating a team.
- Nucker101

LOL at Corsi damn it.

Hey Jason, not sure why you're not using Corsi-Close(because the score does dictate corsi, there's plenty of data to back this up).

The actual Corsi standings are:

1. MIN
2. CHI
3. PIT
4. NYI
5. SJ
6. ANA
7. BOS
8. NSH
9. TB
10. VAN
11. DET
12. WPG
13. WSH
14. NJ
15. EDM
16. STL
17. NYR
18. DAL
19. CAR
20. LA
21. FLA
22. MTL
23. TOR
24. OTT
25. PHI
26. ARI
27. CGY
28. CBJ
29. COL
30. BUF


I don't believe Corsi or Fenwick(Close score situations only) is everything, but it's definitely one of the many factors to consider when evaluating a team.
- Nucker101

facts.... they always ruin a good story!

Jason Lewis: How the League Looks at the Thanksgiving Mark
- Jason_Lewis

Where are you getting your numbers from? Canucks are 3.0 for goals for not 2.45 & 2.7 for goals against.

good write up, i read it all.

I just wanted to add:

Leafs have had a very tough schedule to start the season, back to back games and playing vs really tough opponents. Schedule is much easier as the season goes on.

Im thrilled to see them in a playoff spot to be honest.

thanks Jason!
- Lucas Neilson

so, yeah, the leafs are in position, but they've done that many times over the last 15yrs and somehow managed to embarrass themselves with a historic nose dive, or some other way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Enjoy it while it lasts, but don't get down if they fall short.

Hey Jason, not sure why you're not using Corsi-Close(because the score does dictate corsi, there's plenty of data to back this up).

The actual Corsi standings are:

1. MIN
2. CHI
3. PIT
4. NYI
5. SJ
6. ANA
7. BOS
8. NSH
9. TB
10. VAN
11. DET
12. WPG
13. WSH
14. NJ
15. EDM
16. STL
17. NYR
18. DAL
19. CAR
20. LA
21. FLA
22. MTL
23. TOR
24. OTT
25. PHI
26. ARI
27. CGY
28. CBJ
29. COL
30. BUF


I don't believe Corsi or Fenwick(Close score situations only) is everything, but it's definitely one of the many factors to consider when evaluating a team.
- Nucker101

Stats are pretty much crap when it comes to the post-season. MIN on top? I think we handled them quite nicely, so I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers.

Hey Jason, not sure why you're not using Corsi-Close(because the score does dictate corsi, there's plenty of data to back this up).

The actual Corsi standings are:

1. MIN
2. CHI
3. PIT
4. NYI
5. SJ
6. ANA
7. BOS
8. NSH
9. TB
10. VAN
11. DET
12. WPG
13. WSH
14. NJ
15. EDM
16. STL
17. NYR
18. DAL
19. CAR
20. LA
21. FLA
22. MTL
23. TOR
24. OTT
25. PHI
26. ARI
27. CGY
28. CBJ
29. COL
30. BUF


I don't believe Corsi or Fenwick(Close score situations only) is everything, but it's definitely one of the many factors to consider when evaluating a team.
- Nucker101

Corsi and fenwick close is another really good indicator that I use but I'm personally still getting used to it on a macro sense.

Where are you getting your numbers from? Canucks are 3.0 for goals for not 2.45 & 2.7 for goals against.
- A_SteamingLombardi

At evens. Sorry. Should have put that in.

so, yeah, the leafs are in position, but they've done that many times over the last 15yrs and somehow managed to embarrass themselves with a historic nose dive, or some other way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Enjoy it while it lasts, but don't get down if they fall short.
- kaptaan

(frank)ing Kaptaan

"Vancouver has a goals for average of 2.45 goals a game at even strength and a goals against of 2.80. So how are they getting it done?"

There were 3 blowouts, I think they were 5, 6, and 7 goals against. In 20 games that will raise your goals against considerable.

"Vancouver has a goals for average of 2.45 goals a game at even strength and a goals against of 2.80. So how are they getting it done?"

There were 3 blowouts, I think they were 5, 6, and 7 goals against. In 20 games that will raise your goals against considerable.
- moondawg

Had to obviously fact check this.

They did indeed lose a couple of blowouts.

Dallas 3-6 (1ppg)
Colorado 3-7 (1ppg)
Kings 1-5
Arizona 0-5 (1ppg)

Discounting powerplay goals the Canucks allowed 20 goals in 4 games which is 4.00 (tough math I know) goals average. Very much raised there overall even strength goals against a couple of clicks.

Good eye moondawg.

Also going to bring up that Montreal, St. Louis, and Los Angeles pretty much ruin corsi close for me since I see those three teams in the bottom half and they are definitely better hockey clubs than those numbers indicate. St. Louis in particular.

so, yeah, the canucks are in position, but they've done that many times over the last 15yrs and somehow managed to embarrass themselves with a historic nose dive, or some other way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Enjoy it while it lasts, but don't get down if they fall short.
- kaptaan

Also going to bring up that Montreal, St. Louis, and Los Angeles pretty much ruin corsi close for me since I see those three teams in the bottom half and they are definitely better hockey clubs than those numbers indicate. St. Louis in particular.
- Jason_Lewis

This is what I'm talking about when I say that people have an overreliance on advanced stats (especially Corsi/Fenwick).

High corsi (close or otherwise) =/= good hockey team and low corsi =/= bad hockey team. It is certainly much easier to be a good team when you have good possession numbers, but you can still be a good team without them.

Last year, Montreal's overall EV CF% was 46.7%, good for 26th in the league, and they made it to the Eastern Conference finals. For comparison their EV CF% (close) was 47.2%, again good for 26th in the league. On the flip side, New Jersey had an overall EV CF% of 54.4%, 3rd overall in the league (54.7% close), and they didn't even make the playoffs.

All those numbers tell us is that last season Montreal won hockey games while being a relatively poor possession team, while New Jersey lost games while being an exceptionally good possession team.